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With greater than 40% on the shares currently http://monclerhotsale.inalcajbs.com/ not just ダウンジャケット モンクレール アウトレット quick, a buyback in spot, softball 3Q guidance and also a モンクレール マヤ 正規品 depressed P/E various of 11x on my street low $3.15 EPS estimates I wrote Deckers (DECK) was a unsafe モンクレール 2014 秋冬 レディース ベスト quick inside the mid30s and suggested investors cover before Q3 was reported. (See note here.) Properly, my numbers have been directionally correct, but I was incorrect on the stock as the shares have traded down one more 17% just after hours to beneath $30.
Here http://monclerdiscount.inalcajbs.com/ practically nothing http://monclersale.inalcajbs.com/ price モンクレール レディース ロング is actually a ダウンジャケット モンクレール アウトレット for the reason that モンクレール ダウン 新作 snapshot on the モンクレール レディース 2014 debacle:
1) Sales have been $376 million, down 9% vs last year with Ugg brand sales down 11% (and very same モンクレール ダウンベスト 2014 レディース for the reason that モンクレール マヤ 正規品 reduce モンクレール マヤ 正規品 shop sales at retail down 13%). That was even worse than I anticipated ($390 million in sales) and significantly モンクレール 店舗 福岡 accomplishment モンクレール ダウン 新作 worse than consensus of $413 million.
two) Gross margins compressed to 42.3% from 49.0% final year and reflect cost モンクレール ダウンベスト レディース cuts the company モンクレール マヤ シャイニー accomplishment モンクレール ダウン 新作 confirmed it had created in an try to forestall order cancellations and spur sell by means of. Management expects margins to be 47.0% in Q4. We'll see.
3) SG came in nicely モンクレール キッズ ポロシャツ under モンクレール キッズ サイズ my estimate at $99.7 million (I had $120 million) and under モンクレール アウトレット 三田 last モンクレール ダウンベスト レディース year's $112.2 million. Extra on this later.
four) Regardless of the reduced than expected sales and gross margins, the SG variance, a slightly lower tax rate along with a reduced モンクレール レディース 2014 share count (in the buyback) enabled DECK's EPS to essentially beat consensus of $1.04 by 13% and come in at $1.18. But that "beat" is meaningless due to the fact モンクレール ダウン 新作 more than 40% on the company's organization is derived in Q4 that is what investors are appropriately focused on (and obviously on the longterm growth and money flow generation prospective http://monclermens.inalcajbs.com/ in the company).
5) Inventories had been a whopping $486 million of which $451 million was Ugg branded stuff. That's モンクレール レディース ロング within the モンクレール 店舗 横浜 a 36% raise http://monclernewonline.inalcajbs.com/ against a declining sales trend. Uggly.
A few points モンクレール レディース 2014 stood out within the press release which weren't discussed around the http://monclerhotsale.kingants.net/ price モンクレール ダウン 新作 may be モンクレール 店舗 名古屋 analyst conference call but are worth raising:
1) The firm drew down a whopping $275 million on its seasonal line of credit to fund not simply a ballooning inventory level but additionally モンクレール レディース ロング about $85 million of share repurchases within the 3Q. Inside the 10Q from the second quarter (released mid 3q) the line was reported to become $102 million so it appears inventory was nonetheless piling up at quarter's finish. Also the average share repurchase price was $46/share which suggests management might have believed their very own excuses about climate, etc. for the reason that モンクレール 2014 ビームス why would you order http://monclerfashion.inalcajbs.com/ stock in front of disastrous earnings like DECK released at present (unless it was below http://moncleronlinesale.inalcajbs.com/ a 10b5 strategy and they didn't control the trigger finger on purchases)? The stock hasn't been close to $46 considering the fact that mid September.
2) The reduce http://monclernewsale.inalcajbs.com/ in SG was surprising but likely included an adjustment for the bonus accrual. As an illustration, accrued payroll dropped 43% from final year and did not build モンクレール レディース 中古 because it usually would because the provider periodically accrued bonuses. If that is the case, bonuses need to be leaner this year given the results but with this reduce http://monclercheapsale.inalcajbs.com/ it is not clear yet another reduce this size is usually produced in Q4 if necessary to offset additional モンクレール ダウン 新作 disappointing sales.
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