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 ▼in the checkout, K2  dalaisoxiadot 13/10/2(水) 0:04

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 ■題名 : in the checkout, K2
 ■名前 : dalaisoxiadot <Dieswilutleng@airmaxshopnike.us>
 ■日付 : 13/10/2(水) 0:04
 ■Web : http://monclercheapsale.hailunlinye.com/
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With greater than 40% in the shares already http://monclerhotsale.inalcajbs.com/ not just &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#24215;&#33303; brief, a buyback in spot, softball 3Q guidance along with a &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#20013;&#21476; depressed P/E various of 11x on my street low $3.15 EPS estimates I wrote Deckers (DECK) was a hazardous &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 quick within the mid30s and recommended investors cover prior to Q3 was reported. (See note here.) Effectively, my numbers had been directionally right, but I was incorrect around the stock because the shares have traded down one other 17% right after hours to below $30.

Here http://monclerdiscount.inalcajbs.com/ practically nothing http://monclersale.inalcajbs.com/ price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; is actually a &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 snapshot on the &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; debacle:

1) Sales have been $376 million, down 9% vs final year with Ugg brand sales down 11% (and exact same &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 reduce &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; shop sales at retail down 13%). That was even worse than I anticipated ($390 million in sales) and much &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12513;&#12531;&#12474; accomplishment &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#24215;&#33303; &#21517;&#21476;&#23627; worse than consensus of $413 million.

2) Gross margins compressed to 42.3% from 49.0% last year and reflect cost &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; cuts the enterprise &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#22823;&#38442; accomplishment &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; confirmed it had made in an attempt to forestall order cancellations and spur sell through. Management expects margins to become 47.0% in Q4. We'll see.

three) SG came in effectively &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; under &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12461;&#12483;&#12474; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; my estimate at $99.7 million (I had $120 million) and below &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#19977;&#30000; last &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; year's $112.2 million. Much more on this later.

four) In spite of the reduce than expected sales and gross margins, the SG variance, a slightly reduce tax rate in addition to a reduced &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#24215;&#33303; &#27178;&#27996; share count (from the buyback) enabled DECK's EPS to really beat consensus of $1.04 by 13% and come in at $1.18. But that "beat" is meaningless as a result of &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#20385;&#26684; more than 40% of your company's organization is derived in Q4 which can be what investors are correctly focused on (and of course on the longterm development and cash flow generation potential http://monclermens.inalcajbs.com/ of the company).

5) Inventories had been a whopping $486 million of which $451 million was Ugg branded stuff. That's &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 within the &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 a 36% raise http://monclernewonline.inalcajbs.com/ against a declining sales trend. Uggly.

A couple of points &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12505;&#12473;&#12488; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; stood out in the press release which weren't discussed on the http://monclerhotsale.kingants.net/ price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#24481;&#27583;&#22580; may be &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12461;&#12483;&#12474; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; analyst conference get in touch with but are worth raising:

1) The business drew down a whopping $275 million on its seasonal line of credit to fund not merely a ballooning inventory level but additionally &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12456;&#12523;&#12511;&#12531;&#12492; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; about $85 million of share repurchases inside the 3Q. In the 10Q in the second quarter (released mid 3q) the line was reported to become $102 million so it seems inventory was nonetheless piling up at quarter's finish. Also the typical share repurchase cost was $46/share which suggests management may have believed their own excuses about weather, and so on. because &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#12454;&#12540;&#12523; why would you invest in http://monclerfashion.inalcajbs.com/ stock in front of disastrous earnings like DECK released at present (unless it was below http://moncleronlinesale.inalcajbs.com/ a 10b5 program and they didn't manage the trigger finger on purchases)? The stock hasn't been close to $46 considering that mid September.

two) The cut http://monclernewsale.inalcajbs.com/ in SG was surprising but probably integrated an adjustment to the bonus accrual. As an example, accrued payroll dropped 43% from final year and didn't make &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#20013;&#21476; since it usually would because the enterprise periodically accrued bonuses. If this really is the case, bonuses will need to be leaner this year given the outcomes but with this cut http://monclercheapsale.inalcajbs.com/ it is not clear another reduce this size will be created in Q4 if required to offset additional &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 disappointing sales.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━    通常モードに戻る  ┃  INDEX  ┃  ≪前へ  │  次へ≫    ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━                                 Page 830106