| | 2
With more than 40% of the shares already http://monclerhotsale.inalcajbs.com/ not just モンクレール アウトレット 店舗 brief, a buyback in location, softball 3Q guidance and also a モンクレール キッズ 大人 depressed P/E multiple of 11x on my street low $3.15 EPS estimates I wrote Deckers (DECK) was a unsafe モンクレール マヤ 正規品 brief within the mid30s and suggested investors cover ahead of Q3 was reported. (See note here.) Properly, my numbers were directionally correct, but I was incorrect around the stock because the shares have traded down another 17% soon after hours to beneath $30.
Right here http://monclerdiscount.inalcajbs.com/ practically nothing http://monclersale.inalcajbs.com/ price モンクレール エルミンヌ サイズ is often a モンクレール ダウンベスト サイズ for the reason that モンクレール 2014 秋冬 メンズ snapshot from the モンクレール アウトレット 価格 debacle:
1) Sales were $376 million, down 9% vs final year with Ugg brand sales down 11% (and exact same モンクレール 店舗 直営店 for the reason that モンクレール ダウン 花柄 reduce モンクレール マヤ シャイニー retailer sales at retail down 13%). That was even worse than I anticipated ($390 million in sales) and substantially モンクレール 2014 秋冬 メンズ accomplishment モンクレール キッズ サイズ worse than consensus of $413 million.
two) Gross margins compressed to 42.3% from 49.0% last year and reflect price モンクレール マヤ 正規品 cuts the provider モンクレール ダウン 花柄 accomplishment モンクレール マヤ ウール confirmed it had created in an try to forestall order cancellations and spur sell by way of. Management expects margins to be 47.0% in Q4. We'll see.
three) SG came in well モンクレール キッズ ポロシャツ beneath モンクレール ダウン 新作 my estimate at $99.7 million (I had $120 million) and below モンクレール アウトレット 三田 final モンクレール ダウンベスト レディース year's $112.two million. Additional on this later.
four) Regardless of the reduce than anticipated sales and gross margins, the SG variance, a slightly reduced tax price plus a lower モンクレール 2014 秋冬 レディース phalangere share count (in the buyback) enabled DECK's EPS to essentially beat consensus of $1.04 by 13% and are available in at $1.18. But that "beat" is meaningless since モンクレール マヤ 正規品 more than 40% in the company's company is derived in Q4 which is what investors are appropriately focused on (and not surprisingly on the longterm growth and money flow generation prospective http://monclermens.inalcajbs.com/ in the provider).
five) Inventories had been a whopping $486 million of which $451 million was Ugg branded stuff. That's モンクレール レディース ロング within the モンクレール 店舗 横浜 a 36% enhance http://monclernewonline.inalcajbs.com/ against a declining sales trend. Uggly.
A couple of items モンクレール マヤ 正規品 stood out within the press release which weren't discussed on the http://monclerhotsale.kingants.net/ price モンクレール レディース 2014 may be モンクレール 店舗 神戸 analyst conference call but are worth raising:
1) The enterprise drew down a whopping $275 million on its seasonal line of credit to fund not only a ballooning inventory level but additionally モンクレール レディース ロング about $85 million of share repurchases in the 3Q. In the 10Q in the second quarter (released mid 3q) the line was reported to be $102 million so it appears inventory was nevertheless piling up at quarter's end. Also the typical share repurchase price tag was $46/share which suggests management can have believed their own excuses about weather, and so forth. as a result of モンクレール レディース 2014 why would you purchase http://monclerfashion.inalcajbs.com/ stock in front of disastrous earnings like DECK released presently (unless it was below http://moncleronlinesale.inalcajbs.com/ a 10b5 program and they didn't manage the trigger finger on purchases)? The stock hasn't been close to $46 since mid September.
2) The reduce http://monclernewsale.inalcajbs.com/ in SG was surprising but most likely integrated an adjustment for the bonus accrual. For example, accrued payroll dropped 43% from final year and didn't create モンクレール レディース 2014 because it usually would as the provider periodically accrued bonuses. If this can be the case, bonuses should really be leaner this year given the outcomes but with this cut http://monclercheapsale.inalcajbs.com/ it is not clear a different reduce this size might be made in Q4 if required to offset additional モンクレール 2014 秋冬 レディース phalangere disappointing sales.
|