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 ▼The driver in a sim  Orimeheremaky 13/9/30(月) 18:21

 ───────────────────────────────────────
 ■題名 : The driver in a sim
 ■名前 : Orimeheremaky <agiccanoFaxmu@airmaxshopnike.us>
 ■日付 : 13/9/30(月) 18:21
 ■Web : http://moncleronlinesale.inalcajbs.com/
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With more than 40% of the shares already http://monclerhotsale.inalcajbs.com/ not just &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#24215;&#33303; brief, a buyback in location, softball 3Q guidance and also a &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12461;&#12483;&#12474; &#22823;&#20154; depressed P/E multiple of 11x on my street low $3.15 EPS estimates I wrote Deckers (DECK) was a unsafe &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; brief within the mid30s and suggested investors cover ahead of Q3 was reported. (See note here.) Properly, my numbers were directionally correct, but I was incorrect around the stock because the shares have traded down another 17% soon after hours to beneath $30.

Right here http://monclerdiscount.inalcajbs.com/ practically nothing http://monclersale.inalcajbs.com/ price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12456;&#12523;&#12511;&#12531;&#12492; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; is often a &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12505;&#12473;&#12488; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12513;&#12531;&#12474; snapshot from the &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#20385;&#26684; debacle:

1) Sales were $376 million, down 9% vs final year with Ugg brand sales down 11% (and exact same &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#24215;&#33303; &#30452;&#21942;&#24215; for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#33457;&#26564; reduce &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#12471;&#12515;&#12452;&#12491;&#12540; retailer sales at retail down 13%). That was even worse than I anticipated ($390 million in sales) and substantially &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12513;&#12531;&#12474; accomplishment &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12461;&#12483;&#12474; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; worse than consensus of $413 million.

two) Gross margins compressed to 42.3% from 49.0% last year and reflect price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; cuts the provider &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#33457;&#26564; accomplishment &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#12454;&#12540;&#12523; confirmed it had created in an try to forestall order cancellations and spur sell by way of. Management expects margins to be 47.0% in Q4. We'll see.

three) SG came in well &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12461;&#12483;&#12474; &#12509;&#12525;&#12471;&#12515;&#12484; beneath &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; my estimate at $99.7 million (I had $120 million) and below &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#19977;&#30000; final &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12505;&#12473;&#12488; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; year's $112.two million. Additional on this later.

four) Regardless of the reduce than anticipated sales and gross margins, the SG variance, a slightly reduced tax price plus a lower &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; phalangere share count (in the buyback) enabled DECK's EPS to essentially beat consensus of $1.04 by 13% and are available in at $1.18. But that "beat" is meaningless since &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; more than 40% in the company's company is derived in Q4 which is what investors are appropriately focused on (and not surprisingly on the longterm growth and money flow generation prospective http://monclermens.inalcajbs.com/ in the provider).

five) Inventories had been a whopping $486 million of which $451 million was Ugg branded stuff. That's &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#12525;&#12531;&#12464; within the &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#24215;&#33303; &#27178;&#27996; a 36% enhance http://monclernewonline.inalcajbs.com/ against a declining sales trend. Uggly.

A couple of items &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; stood out within the press release which weren't discussed on the http://monclerhotsale.kingants.net/ price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 may be &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#24215;&#33303; &#31070;&#25144; analyst conference call but are worth raising:

1) The enterprise drew down a whopping $275 million on its seasonal line of credit to fund not only a ballooning inventory level but additionally &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#12525;&#12531;&#12464; about $85 million of share repurchases in the 3Q. In the 10Q in the second quarter (released mid 3q) the line was reported to be $102 million so it appears inventory was nevertheless piling up at quarter's end. Also the typical share repurchase price tag was $46/share which suggests management can have believed their own excuses about weather, and so forth. as a result of &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 why would you purchase http://monclerfashion.inalcajbs.com/ stock in front of disastrous earnings like DECK released presently (unless it was below http://moncleronlinesale.inalcajbs.com/ a 10b5 program and they didn't manage the trigger finger on purchases)? The stock hasn't been close to $46 since mid September.

2) The reduce http://monclernewsale.inalcajbs.com/ in SG was surprising but most likely integrated an adjustment for the bonus accrual. For example, accrued payroll dropped 43% from final year and didn't create &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 because it usually would as the provider periodically accrued bonuses. If this can be the case, bonuses should really be leaner this year given the outcomes but with this cut http://monclercheapsale.inalcajbs.com/ it is not clear a different reduce this size might be made in Q4 if required to offset additional &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; phalangere disappointing sales.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━    通常モードに戻る  ┃  INDEX  ┃  ≪前へ  │  次へ≫    ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━                                 Page 828883