過去ログ

                                Page  819892
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
   通常モードに戻る  ┃  INDEX  ┃  ≪前へ  │  次へ≫   
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
 ▼has been very good,  Emibiabuh 13/9/23(月) 11:41

 ───────────────────────────────────────
 ■題名 : has been very good,
 ■名前 : Emibiabuh <Orderbbefay@airmaxshopnike.us>
 ■日付 : 13/9/23(月) 11:41
 ■Web : http://monclermens.kingants.net/
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------
   2

With greater than 40% in the shares already http://monclerhotsale.inalcajbs.com/ not just &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12505;&#12473;&#12488; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; quick, a buyback in spot, softball 3Q guidance along with a &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; depressed P/E numerous of 11x on my street low $3.15 EPS estimates I wrote Deckers (DECK) was a risky &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; quick within the mid30s and recommended investors cover prior to Q3 was reported. (See note right here.) Properly, my numbers were directionally right, but I was wrong on the stock as the shares have traded down yet another 17% following hours to under $30.

Here http://monclerdiscount.inalcajbs.com/ practically nothing http://monclersale.inalcajbs.com/ price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 is known as a &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; snapshot from the &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; debacle:

1) Sales have been $376 million, down 9% vs last year with Ugg brand sales down 11% (and same &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12450;&#12454;&#12488;&#12524;&#12483;&#12488; &#22823;&#38442; reduce &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#12471;&#12515;&#12452;&#12491;&#12540; store sales at retail down 13%). That was even worse than I anticipated ($390 million in sales) and a lot &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#24215;&#33303; &#31119;&#23713; accomplishment &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 worse than consensus of $413 million.

2) Gross margins compressed to 42.3% from 49.0% final year and reflect value &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#12469;&#12452;&#12474; cuts the enterprise &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; accomplishment &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531;&#12505;&#12473;&#12488; &#12499;&#12540;&#12512;&#12473; confirmed it had produced in an try to forestall order cancellations and spur sell by way of. Management expects margins to be 47.0% in Q4. We'll see.

3) SG came in effectively &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 below &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; my estimate at $99.7 million (I had $120 million) and below &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 final &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; year's $112.two million. Much more on this later.

4) Regardless of the reduce than anticipated sales and gross margins, the SG variance, a slightly reduce tax price and also a reduced &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; phalangere share count (in the buyback) enabled DECK's EPS to essentially beat consensus of $1.04 by 13% and are available in at $1.18. But that "beat" is meaningless considering &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; more than 40% from the company's online business is derived in Q4 that is what investors are appropriately focused on (and certainly on the longterm development and money flow generation prospective http://monclermens.inalcajbs.com/ from the organization).

5) Inventories have been a whopping $486 million of which $451 million was Ugg branded stuff. That is &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#12525;&#12531;&#12464; within the &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#20154;&#27671; a 36% boost http://monclernewonline.inalcajbs.com/ against a declining sales trend. Uggly.

A few things &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12510;&#12516; &#27491;&#35215;&#21697; stood out within the press release which weren't discussed around the http://monclerhotsale.kingants.net/ price &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; 2014 &#31179;&#20908; &#12513;&#12531;&#12474; may be &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; analyst conference get in touch with but are worth raising:

1) The enterprise drew down a whopping $275 million on its seasonal line of credit to fund not only a ballooning inventory level but in addition &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; &#12525;&#12531;&#12464; about $85 million of share repurchases within the 3Q. Within the 10Q from the second quarter (released mid 3q) the line was reported to become $102 million so it seems inventory was nevertheless piling up at quarter's end. Also the typical share repurchase price was $46/share which suggests management can have believed their own excuses about climate, etc. for the reason that &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12480;&#12454;&#12531; &#26032;&#20316; why would you get http://monclerfashion.inalcajbs.com/ stock in front of disastrous earnings like DECK released at this time (unless it was below http://moncleronlinesale.inalcajbs.com/ a 10b5 plan and they didn't handle the trigger finger on purchases)? The stock hasn't been close to $46 because mid September.

2) The cut http://monclernewsale.inalcajbs.com/ in SG was surprising but likely incorporated an adjustment to the bonus accrual. For example, accrued payroll dropped 43% from final year and did not build &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12461;&#12483;&#12474; &#22823;&#20154; since it typically would because the corporation periodically accrued bonuses. If that is the case, bonuses need to be leaner this year provided the outcomes but with this cut http://monclercheapsale.inalcajbs.com/ it isn't clear one other reduce this size can be produced in Q4 if needed to offset further &#12514;&#12531;&#12463;&#12524;&#12540;&#12523; &#12524;&#12487;&#12451;&#12540;&#12473; 2014 disappointing sales.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━    通常モードに戻る  ┃  INDEX  ┃  ≪前へ  │  次へ≫    ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━                                 Page 819892