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As you said Conoco has acreage next to EOG and I am sure they are aware of these developments. However, at this stage we should not expect too much from Husky or COP horizontals. I think the market was very disappointed by the MGM test results. I was and I know better. My formative time during the oil industry was during the days when you could judge from initial tests whether you had a gusher or not. The MGM well most certainly was not a gusher with flow rates of 50 bopd which included formation fluid and frac fluid. However, with shale oil the initial test results cannot be used to predict the future. So I would like to go through what we can realistically expect from testing;1. Husky and Conoco have drilled vertical wells. They cored them and logged them without testing. The objective is to get a good idea of what porosity, oil saturation and the quality of oil was. This allows them to calibrate the well logs and seismic data and hence get a better idea of how much oil is contained in the rock. 2. Next, they do some small scale fractures and testing. They then put in pressure recorders. This allows them to get some rock mechanics properties and matrix permeability data. At this stage, the vertical production test data will not reflect what horizontals will do. Instead they are trying to get data to design the horizontal fractures and determine the type of reservoir fluid. This last point is vital as you need oil in the 35 to 50 API range with GOR around 1,000 to 5,000 scf per barrel. If the oil is heavier, it is too viscous to flow. If the oil is too light, you end up with mostly gas. You need some gas as this is what pushes the oil out of the rock. Low GOR mean you are going to get lower recoveries. As the reservoir pressures decline, the gas expands and pushes the oil out. MGM did steps 1 and 2 all at once. They got cores and they found oil in the sweet spot at 40 API. They got a huge amount of net pay and confirmed that the rock is brittle. In other words they did in one season what Husky did in two. 3. At this point they have data to do some experimental multistage fracturing design. I emphasize experimental. The Conoco program calls for small laterals, 10 stages and 100 tonnes per stage. This is pretty small scale stuff and as a result one cannot expect huge production rates. However, we are still at the science experiment stage. They will install microseismic equipment in the adjacent vertical wells which allows them to see exactly where the frac is going, how big it is, etc. They will also be monitoring ground water wells to ensure there is not contamination.4. Next they will do long term testing of experimental horizontal wells which will give them some idea of the recovery factors. Don't expect boomer wells at this stage because there has been no attempt to optimize the fracture programs. We are still in the data collection stage.5. Fracture optimization comes next based upon all the data collected above. 6. Optimized field development comes next with an environmental assessment. I would anticipate pad drilling with around 30 wells per pad. I would also expect that they will put two horizontal laterals into the Canol because it is so thick. We also might see a third lateral into the Bluefish. The Bluefish looks as good as some southern shale oil plays which are hot. So you might see up 90 laterals per pad based upon 30 wells per pad. Even at 500 bopd per lateral that is a lot of oil production per pad. As mentioned, the end game for MGM is to sell the property or the company. The play is way beyond their financial or technical means. I would suggest that stage 4 or 5 is the best time to sell as the play will have been substantially derisked. In addition, a lot of infrastructure issues are going to become clearer with the anticipated construction of the all weather Mackenzie Valley Highway starting as early as 2015. To give you a basis of comparison, MGM has about 190,000 acres in Canol. This is almost the same size as Conoco's acreage. Judging from old logs it looks like MGM has some of the thickest part of the Canol. I would say the downside of their acreage is that it tends to be shallower and hence has lower pressures. The last thing I would say is that what counts is not only the great prospects of the company, but whether those prospects are priced into the stock price. MGM prospects are great with 8.3 billion BOE in place. These are major league sized resources. The great news is that the price does not reflect ANY value for the Canol. The stock was trading at this value before 2012 based solely on its 780 Bcf of gas reserves. As a result, the downside risk is small and the upside is huge. By oil industry standards the risks are moderate with perhaps a 30% chance that the Canol will be noncommercial. Although you would not guess it from the stock price, we have come a long way since this time last year. Cheap Toms Shoes In August, we asked you to publish at least five articles and promised you a 10% bonus in return. In October, we asked you to publish at least ten articles, for a 20% bonus. In December, we giving you both options! If you publish 59 articles, receive a 10% bonus. Want to try a little harder and earn even more? Publish 10 articles or more and double your bonus to 20%. Chanel Outlet Photo Credit: Featured Necklace available from Amazon, see below for details. 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